2024 Prospect

As we embark on the Dragon Year of 2024, a complex landscape unfolds. Within China, a series of challenges rise, while globally, geopolitical tensions loom. The coming triennial period is poised to be pivotal in the realm of financial confrontation. Despite a series of military provocations failing to secure the desired objectives for American hegemony, the United States has intensified its technological and equipment blockade against China's high-tech sector, further pressuring China's export industry through industrial relocation. The question remains: can China withstand the financial and monetary siege?

Fundamental Assessment of China's Current Status

1. Interest Rates on a Downward Trajectory, Set to Reach Historical Lows

• With the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and the RMB appreciating against the dollar, a stable interest rate differential emerges, mitigating the siphoning effect of US dollar tide.
• This shift is instrumental in alleviating the burden on real estate firms, mortgage holders, and local governments.
• An irrational industrial structure and pessimistic export demand in the short to medium term underscore the need for enhanced debt repayment capabilities and financial flexibility.
• Lowering the risk-free rate of return is essential to create ample room for fiscal and monetary policies, especially considering the unsustainable nature of long-term high interest rates in the US.
• These measures are designed to stimulate consumer spending, investment, and corporate investment activities.

2. Capital Markets on the Cusp of a Major Transformation

• A fundamental systemic overhaul could usher in a new era of growth for the capital markets, shifting from a mechanism for power monetization to a catalyst for technological innovation and industrial advancement.

• Synergy between the National Development and Reform Commission and the China Securities Regulatory Commission is crucial, as they reshape the capital market's role through industrial planning, policy guidance, and listing regulations, facilitating the entry of companies driving technological progress and innovation.
• Enhanced punitive measures for IPO fraud, systemic arbitrage, insider trading, and financial misrepresentation are imperative.
• Refining the delisting system is key to improving asset quality in the capital market, establishing an effective mechanism for market metabolism.
• Advancing trading regulations to safeguard investor interests and bolster market confidence is a priority.

3. The Chinese Economy's Transition from Stagflation to Deflation, with Debt Issues Coming to the Forefront

• Local government and municipal bonds face significant repayment pressures, and the transition for local governments from "land finance" to "capital market finance" is a protracted process.
• The real estate sector's downturn necessitates a delicate balance between support and overextension, to avoid systemic risks while seeking equilibrium to sustain economic stability. However, it is crucial to avoid long-term dependency and the risk of a hard landing.

• Neglecting support could undermine the economic and political foundations.
• Overextension could lead to a short-term solution with long-term consequences.

• Asset securitization and the introduction of REITs are part of the strategy to revitalize existing assets and integrate more high-quality assets into the secondary market.
• The banking sector's transformation is fraught with challenges, particularly in shifting from interest income monopolies to a model that benefits the real economy, requiring a comprehensive institutional overhaul by the central government. This includes:

• A significant push towards inclusive finance.
• A complete overhaul of credit approval and risk control logic, incorporating data assets as qualified collateral and reevaluating the discount rates for tangible asset mortgages.
• The introduction of a personal bankruptcy system, offering entrepreneurs and diligent business owners the chance to start afresh and move forward with reduced burdens.

4. The Likelihood of Conventional Warfare is Minimal

• The protracted conflicts involving Russia and the US in various local wars serve as cautionary tales. Unless a swift and decisive military campaign is launched, the conditions are not ripe for large-scale conflict.
• Amidst ongoing financial warfare and a relatively fragile financial system, the US awaits strategic missteps from China, and we cannot afford to be spread thin.
• Time is on China's side, as the US's military deterrence and financial hegemony are in decline, and the creditworthiness of sovereign currencies is diminishing.

Insights on Artificial Intelligence

The new wave of AI technology, epitomized by large-scale models and generative models, is reshaping the industrial landscape. From ChatGPT's text generation to DALL·E's text-to-image capabilities, and the emergence of Sora's text-to-video generation, the "violent aesthetics" of AI is consistently pushing technological boundaries. With the advent of multimodality as a consensus trend, we anticipate that 3D will be the next frontier. As multimodal models evolve, a content creation revolution is imminent, with video素材, text annotations, and synthetic data forming the bedrock for model training. Copyrighted video content stands to monetize its value, and companies with exclusive IP resources will hold the keys to core value. Furthermore, AI multimodality is set to permeate sectors such as gaming, education, marketing, and entertainment, enhancing user experience and accelerating the monetization of technological value.

Charting China's Future Route

1. Key Challenges Facing China

• The political system, economic, financial, and monetary policy imbalances.
• Fundamental social issues in social security, healthcare, and education, often referred to as the "three mountains."
• An irrational industrial structure with issues in real estate, exports, and infrastructure.
• External pressures stemming from diplomacy and geopolitical tensions.

2. Can China's Economic Growth Continue? Will it Surpass and Become the World's Largest Economy?

• The question of whether China can avoid the pitfalls of Japan, the collapse of the Soviet Union, or the middle-income trap experienced by South American nations remains open.
• National sovereignty and military independence, coupled with an effective currency and financial self-protection system, are cornerstones for growth.
• Self-sufficiency in food, energy, and resources is essential.
• The talent dividend, derived from a well-educated labor force, is a significant advantage.
• A comprehensive industrial support system and the largest consumer market in the world are key assets.

3. Breaking Through Economic and Industrial Development

• Advanced industries such as semiconductors, advanced manufacturing, new energy vehicles, AI, batteries, and renewable energy sectors hold immense potential.
• The upgrading and transformation of traditional industries are crucial.
• Exporting products of China-leading industries (e.g., automobiles, home appliances) and productivity exports (e.g., infrastructure, manufacturing) are strategic moves, with the ultimate goal of expanding sovereign credit and currency into Asia, Africa, Latin America, and other third-world countries.

4. The Future Direction of Development

• The government's fiscal model is expected to transition from "land finance," supported by credit and real estate, to "capital market finance" or "stock market finance," underpinned by technological innovation and industrial development.
• The monetary system will evolve from a credit money-dominated model to a dual model that includes fiscal money and credit money.
• The economic structure will shift from a real estate-dominated, high-turnover, high-leverage system to a diversified system supported by technological innovation, progress, product/capacity exports, sovereign credit, and currency expansion.
• Cultural evolution is essential, transitioning from an agrarian culture to a commercial one, fostering a true commercial civilization.